Prognosticator's Corner

Here's a few links that will supply you with a look at the polling numbers and projections for the 2010 election...

This is often referred to as "the horse race" angle of the election. Some believe that polls become almost like self fulfilling prophesies (i.e. People read the polls and it influences whether or not they vote or how they will vote. Hmmmm maybe another problem that needs research.)


Election Projection

http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php


Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/


MSNBC Election Map

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/#slice-5


Nate Silver's Political Calculus

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


Intrade Predictions (see how Intrade works - Very Cool - http://www.intrade.com/ )

http://electoralmap.net/2010/house_seats.php

We Report, You Decide... Fair and Balanced

Here are two sources for coverage of the election that will offer different perspectives on the issues.

Although as Sledge Hammer would say... "I prefer to get my news from more reliable sources like rumor and small children."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

Gotta Love Politics That Has Slogans like "I'll Take You Out, Buddy"

Just to show you it can get nasty, here is the story of a confrontation between a reporter from the New York Post and Republican nominee for governor, Carl Paladino over photographs that were taken of Paladino's ten year old daughter through her bedroom window. As well, Paladino has accused Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate of extramarital affairs.



http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/29/paladino-reporter-ill/

The Research Study

Research Study:

DUE DATE FOR THE FINAL VERSION OF THIS PROJECT IS TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2010.

You are about to undertake a study of the 2010 midterm election in the United States. Your task will be to conduct a research study that will either: A)help one to understand the American political character in terms of what is valued what are the ideas that are being argued about; or B) evaluate the news media and to what extent it is fair and balanced .

The following provides some examples of the possible research questions:


How does media bias (either conservative or liberal) influence people's perceptions with respect to a particular issue?

How does media bias (either conservative or liberal) influence people's perceptions with respect to the election in general?

How does media bias (either conservative or liberal) influence people's perceptions with respect to a particular political figure?

Which media outlet offers the fairest, most balanced coverage of the election?

Does the Tea Party movement represent a real shift in American politics or is it a blip?

Will the 2010 election settle isssues or is it simply the first battle in a general war heading towards 2012?

Is there a Culture War raging in America?

**You may develop your own question for approval...


You are to develop your study using the scientific method.

Your model must include the following components:



•research - the background to your problem or question
•hypothesis - a prediction concerning what your study will find or attempt to answer
•variables - things that can change, depending on conditions (independent/dependent)
•procedure - what will be done, in order to get an answer to the hypothesis
•results - findings of executing your procedure
•observation - your records of what you did or studied
•conclusions - a final analysis of whether or not the hypothesis was proved

Before class on Friday, consider which question you are interested in and think about the issues you need to learn about to study that question.

Starting next class, I will work with you to help you through the process of developing your model.