Hope you enjoyed the test. Now it's time to enjoy the election. Thought you might like the poster, given the title of the blog entry and the tone for today's activities... Even better that the star of the film is none other than the Governator himself. Although I like President George H.W. Bush's nickname for Arnold better -- Conan the Republican.
You can use this blog entry to keep up with the election results tonight. It will be interesting to see if the pollsters and pundits are right. Republicans are poised for a big win in the House and maybe a chance to tighten things up in the Senate. Let's see how it actually turns out. Does President Obama duck under the Republican wave, or does he just become a lame duck?
Here's a few items which will assist you in getting the dirt before it's just old dirt...
6 pm CST
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia
Indiana and Kentucky need to go for the GOP, if Republicans are going to have any chance to win the Senate.
In the House, watch John Spratt of South Carolina - 14 term Democrat is in a tight race.
Also, watch Ben Chandler, a three term moderate Democrat in Kentucky who could perhaps distance himself from the party leadership and the President. If he goes down, it could be a long night for the Democrats.
In Virginia, Republican Robert Hurt is trying to unseat Democrat Tom Perreillo, a big time liberal and staunch Obama supporter. Perreillo will likely lose, but if he can make it close, maybe the death of the Democrats will be greatly exaggerated.
Also, in Virginia, it will be interesting to see if Democrat Rick Boucher (a member since 1983) and freshman Democrat Jerry Connolly can survive. If so, it will be an important hold for Democrats. If not, it will be a sign that traditionally democratic voters are swinging towards the GOP. This might be the first sign of a landslide rout for Republicans.
6:30 pm CST
Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina
Bottom line - West Virginia is where Democrats can draw a line in the sand over the Senate. If Democrat Joe Manchin (replacing old Robert C. Byrd) wins, Republicans are going to have to probably win two of California, Connecticut, and Washington.
In the House, a loss by Democrat incumbent Nick Joe Rahall is another sign that for Democrats
...Ohio might be another place for Democratic hope... Republicans look solid to roll in the Senate, but the Governor's race is very tight. This suggests that local politics might be more important to some people than national issues -- and given the mood of the country, that would be good for Democrats.
And check out the Ohio House races ... As ESPN would say... Here they are...By the Numbers...
3 Democrats go down - good night for the GOP
4 Democrats lose - Republicans will be back to where they were in 2002
5 or more Dems fall - there's going to be the sound of champagne popping at GOP headquarters, as that will mean a real sea change
7 pm CST
Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Tennessee
Both Dems and the GOP have strong people who will win back their seats in these parts, but here are the game changers...
Illinois, President Obama's old Senate seat may well go Republican, but it will be close. In Connecticut, it looks like Democrats will hold on, but if former WWE CEO Linda McMahon wins for the Republicans, it will be a major upset and the Senate will be in play.
Democrats might actually have a shot to steal one from Republicans in the Illinois House race -- watch the 10th district.
However, most of the attention will be on Florida.
Republicans are gunning for 4 pickups in the House, but if they get more, once again it will be an indication of a landslide.
Western New Hampshire's 2nd district and Massachusetts' 10th district are open seat contests that would also show Republican strength. Longtime Democrat Barney Frank is also in a real fight -- his loss would be devastating to Democrats in what has been a safe seat.
8:00pm CST
Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming
If projections are right, this will be the hour that the networks will declare a Republican majority in the House. If the Senate is still in play by this time, Colorado will become very critical. Watch for this one.
Also in Colorado, the House 7th district will be a thermometer for the rest of the west. If Democrat Ed Perlmutter wins by a wide margin, the Senate race in Colorado could go for the Democrats, but if Republican Ryan Frazier is even close, the Senate seat could go for the GOP.
Another key sign of a Republican landslide in the works would be if New York House seats go their way. Right now the magic number for the GOP is 6 or better.
Minnesota's Democrat James Oberstar will be an interesting person to watch. He has been in Congress for 34 years and has never had anyone really challenge him. If Chip Cravaack is even close for the Republicans, it is another sign of big changes. Should Oberstar win 60% of the vote, it will be business as usual.
9 pm CST
Arizona, Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah
Will this hour be witching hour for Harry Reid? The Democratic Majority leader in the Senate is in for a close night, and Republicans would love to send him into retirement. More importantly, this a fight between labor and the Obama folks who have come out strong to save Reid and Republican Sharron Angle, who is a poster child for the Tea Partiers. If Democrats are getting wiped out all over the country and Angle can't get Reid, it will be a blow to the Tea Party movement.
The Nevada 3rd district battle in the House will see Republicans trying to take back what they lost in 2008. Democrat Dina Titus is under pressure from Republican Joe Heck. If Heck looks good, Harry Reid can likely start sharpening his resume.
10 pm CST
California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington
It might be all academic by this time, but either a strong Republican showing or a weak Republican showing nationally would mean good late night tv. On a good night, the Senate might still be up for grabs. On a bad night, control of the House might still be undecided.
California and Washington senate races are in play. Again, a House race will help clear things up. Democrats are vying to take the 8th district from Republican Dave Reichert. But if Reichert wins big, it might mean that those same folks will vote to oust Democratic Senator Patty Murray.
And Senator Barbara Boxer will need a big turnout of minority voters to seal the other Senate seat for California in the Democratic column. A low turnout will hurt her and might mean traditional Democratic voters are staying away, something President Obama has been concerned about.
11 pm CST
Hawaii and Alaska
Aloha, from the Sandman!
If you are still up by this point, go to bed!
The Alaska senate seat might make for some good drama, but you can read about it the next day.
